がんばろう、ニッポン!


オンライン資料収集制度│オープン・データ│DATA GO JP│オープン・ガバメント│オープン・ガバナンス

 Intelligence, MACHIDA.

官能ベイズ
 Sensual Bayes – Innovation Management –

町田正(MACHIDA, Tadashi.

Bayesian approach making simulation of innovative/inefficient market which is a nich at early adapter's stage.

Keywords: 官能, 野心, 経営戦略, イノベーション, Innovation management, Innovation, Management, ベイズ, Bayes, ゲーム, Sensory,

Before,


Permissioned.


After,


Decentralized..




For time-series data in innovation of advanced process, we calculate the linear estimation.

Data rather than sequentially estimated from the total amount of survey,

And temporarily holds the value of as a pre-estimated at a certain point in time,

Sales linear function from that wishful thinking of the Player, the real-time on the estimated potential value, determine the consequences recursive relationship.

SensualRemodelingθtheta_sensual function = , but also unpermissioned.


And as in this case, for example, think about the exit strategy of market release time of innovation, Early majority of the accumulated past data groups,  And it is incorporated into the estimated value.

It is possible to estimate by the way,

Time series presented in the interactive simulation.

It suggests the scalability of the realistic-time functional evaluation of the Bayesian approach continuing to this assumption.

The state of the potential value, It is the amount that can not be directly observed.

If the observed value depends on,

Equation is expressed as:

Known coefficient, Market error,

Observation of selling hope,



Market error,



Also includes error value of each individual modification.

By the way,

to be continue...